🔮 Future Science
How much ice will remain on Earth at the end of this century? The answer depends critically on how much greenhouse gas humanity emits in the coming decades — and on how well our climate models capture the complex feedbacks and dynamics of ice sheet and glacier behaviour. The latest generation of IPCC projections, published in the Sixth Assessment Report in 2021, provides our best current estimates — while acknowledging significant uncertainties, particularly around the behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.
of small glaciers gone by 2100 (high emissions)
sea level rise by 2100 (likely range)
warming — 50% less glacier volume
multi-metre rise possible longer term
The IPCC's AR6 report presents projections under five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), ranging from aggressive emissions reduction (SSP1-1.9, limiting warming to approximately 1.5°C) to high-emissions continuation (SSP5-8.5, reaching approximately 4-5°C by 2100). For mountain glaciers, the difference between scenarios is dramatic: under SSP1-1.9, glaciers in many regions retain 50-70% of their current volume by 2100; under SSP5-8.5, most smaller glaciers disappear entirely and major mountain glacier systems lose 70-90% of their volume.
| Scenario | 2050 | 2100 | 2300 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low (SSP1-1.9) | ~20cm | ~0.3-0.6m | ~0.3-1m |
| Intermediate (SSP2-4.5) | ~25cm | ~0.4-0.8m | ~1-2m |
| High (SSP5-8.5) | ~30cm | ~0.6-1.0m | ~2-5m |
| Ice sheet instability | ~50cm | ~1-2m | ~5-15m |
Get our latest climate and cryosphere science articles delivered to your inbox.
✅ Thank you! You'll receive our next article in your inbox.
Dr. Eriksen has studied the interactions between ice, ocean, and atmosphere for 16 years, with fieldwork across Svalbard, Iceland, and the Antarctic Peninsula. His research focuses on ice-climate feedbacks, glacial outburst floods, and the human dimensions of cryosphere change. He draws on data from NASA, ESA, and the IPCC.